The speech certainly got Republicans’ attention. Many thought it had done too much, says Allen Guelzo, director of Civil War era studies at Gettysburg College and author of multiple books about Lincoln.
“As soon as he used those words ‘house divided,’ he articulated the fear that everybody had at that point that the slavery controversy was indeed going to lead to some kind of civil war,” Guelzo says. “And you could almost hear a collective gasp from people that he would actually come right out and say we’re going to have a civil war.”
To be clear, this wasn’t what Lincoln was saying. He thought the country couldn’t remain half-free, and that it would end up becoming one or the other. But in the very next sentence, he clarified that he didn’t think this would necessarily happen through the dissolution of the Union.
“Of course, nobody paid attention to the second sentence,” Guelzo says. “All they heard was the ‘house divided’ part and they immediately assumed that what Lincoln was calling for was civil war, that the only way to resolve the slavery injustice was going to be civil conflict.” On the campaign trail, Douglas used the perception that Lincoln was advocating for war against him.
“I think that there’s a fairly good argument to be made that the ‘house divided’ speech ended up hurting Lincoln in the 1858 election and was one reason why he lost,” Guelzo says. “Because it made him sound too unacceptably radical on the subject of slavery, even to people who were opposed to the extension of slavery … but they really didn’t wanna have a civil war over it.”
Still, Lincoln emerged from the campaign as a prominent political figure. Not many people heard about his “house divided” address when he first gave it, but over the next several months, he publicly spread his argument through campaign speeches and his famous series of debates with Douglas.
The national attention Lincoln gained from that campaign earned him the Republican presidential nomination and then the presidency in 1860. Soon after this victory, his “house divided” speech became strangely prophetic as southern states seceded from and waged war on the Union. In 1865, the U.S. accomplished Lincoln’s goal of abolishing slavery—but not without fighting a civil war over it first.