To combat skyrocketing inflation, the Fed kept raising its discount interest rate to make borrowing more expensive. By 1920, the interest rate had reached 7 percent, what Grant calls “horrifically high.”
While the Fed had the right idea, the timing was not good. The surprise post-war inflationary bubble was about to burst. Sector by sector, market by market, prices began to plummet as the once-exuberant consumer demand dried up. And with interest rates sky high, businesses couldn’t afford to borrow money to stay afloat.
Grant argues that the Fed absolutely could have intervened by slashing interest rates, and Congress could have passed fat stimulus packages to prop up failing industries, but instead, U.S. leaders chose the path of laissez-faire.
Benjamin Strong, the influential governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at the time, was clear-eyed in his prediction of what inaction would do to the economy.
“I believe that this period will be accompanied by a considerable degree of unemployment, but not for very long,” he wrote in February of 1919. “And that after a year or two of discomfort, embarrassment, some losses, some disorders caused by unemployment, we will emerge with an almost invincible banking position… and be able to exercise a wide and important influence in restoring the world to a normal and livable condition.”
And that’s precisely what happened. The depression of 1920 and 1921 lasted 18 months, what Grant calls a “brutally hard, but very efficient depression.” The stock market lost nearly half its value, unemployment reached 19 percent, and countless businesses went bankrupt, including Truman & Jacobson, a men’s clothing store in Kansas City co-owned by future U.S. president Harry Truman.
A Nation ‘On Sale’
The bitter economic pill prescribed by Strong worked as intended, and prices came down. And in 1921, the newly appointed Secretary of the Treasury, wealthy industrialist Andrew Mellon, pressed the Fed to finally lower interest rates.
With deflated prices for goods and lower borrowing costs, “The country was on sale,” says Grant. Foreign investors flooded the economy with gold and that provided the capital to get the ball rolling again domestically.
“Free markets were their own beacon,” says Grant. “Gold rushed into the country to profit by the coming boom, and sure enough there was a boom, and the 1920s really ‘roared.’”
Back to ‘Normal’ in a Big Way