A Stock Market Peak Occurred Before the Crash
During the Roaring Twenties, the U.S. economy and the stock market experienced rapid expansion, and stocks hit record highs.
The Dow increased six-fold from August 1921 to September 1929, leading economists such as Irving Fisher to conclude, “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
The market officially peaked on September 3, 1929, when the Dow shot up to 381.
By this time, many ordinary working-class citizens had become interested in stock investments, and some purchased stocks “on margin,” meaning they paid only a small percentage of the value and borrowed the rest from a bank or broker.
Additionally, the overall economic climate in the United States was healthy in the 1920s. Unemployment was down, and the automobile industry was booming.
While the precise cause of the stock market crash of 1929 is often debated among economists, several widely accepted theories exist.
The Market—And People—Were Overconfident
Some experts argue that at the time of the crash, stocks were wildly overpriced and that a collapse was imminent.
That same sense of reckless overconfidence extended to average consumers and small investors, too, leading to an “asset bubble.” The crash happened after a long period of rising market growth that led to consumer overconfidence.
In fact, after 1922, the stock market had increased by nearly 20 percent each year until 1929.
People Bought Stocks With Easy Credit
During the 1920s, there was a rapid growth in bank credit and easily acquired loans. People encouraged by the market’s stability were unafraid of debt.
The concept of “buying on margin” allowed ordinary people with little financial acumen to borrow money from their stockbroker and put down as little as 10 percent of the share value.
A similar type of overconfidence was seen in industries such as manufacturing and agriculture: overproduction led to a glut of items including farm crops, steel, durable goods and iron. This meant companies had to purge their supplies at a loss, and share prices suffered.